Trump’s Ignorant Gamble on Ukraine’s Wealth

Donald Trump has always considered himself the consummate dealmaker – the grand vizier of strategists when it comes to deal-making – the magician who can make the impossible possible. In some instances, that might be so, but geopolitically, Trump is way out of his league.

Add to that the people advising him, and ‘Trump’s art of the deal’ becomes a fool’s errand—a failure before he even gets to the negotiating table.

Trump’s White House announcement this week that he would be signing a multibillion-dollar minerals deal with Zelensky during his visit to Washington was framed as support for Ukraine’s economic recovery. In reality, it’s a call mired in delusion and a failed exercise in political arrogance.

Moral indignation has never been a consideration of any US administration. Not since JFK has the US acted with any form of morality. Trump’s plan to extract $500bn in minerals—what he calls ‘payback’ for the money the US invested in a proxy war it and NATO created—isn’t just comically absurd but a stark admission of the transactional nature of US foreign policy. Sovereignty, ethics, and the lives of those caught in conflict are mere collateral in the pursuit of economic and geopolitical dominance.

It lays bare the reality that war, for Washington, isn’t just a tool of influence but a lucrative enterprise, with morality conveniently sidelined in favour of profit and power.

Expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to the Americans mining minerals in territory Russia has secured is delusional. Good luck with that, Donald.

Even more fascinating is the deal Trump thinks he’s secured. On May 20 last year, Ukraine was scheduled to hold its presidential election, but Zelensky cancelled it, citing martial law. That makes him a dictator and an illegitimate leader of Ukraine—rightly so.

Ukraine’s resource-rich territories, including the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are under Russian control. Since 2022, Russia has consolidated its hold over these areas, raising obvious concerns about the feasibility of American investments in mineral extraction.

Without firm territorial agreements, any mineral rights granted to US companies won’t just be legally contested but reflect yet another example of ignorant thinking by Washington. The idea that Russia will simply allow the US to extract resources from territory it governs is ludicrous.

Russia has already integrated the infrastructure of these regions into its economic framework, making foreign investment all but impossible. Any attempt by the US to enforce mineral rights in these regions would provoke diplomatic retaliation from Moscow, further destabilising the region and deepening the conflict.

Positioning the minerals deal as a way to offset some of the economic and military aid the US has provided—and treating Ukraine’s natural resources as financial compensation—undermines the broader diplomatic efforts supposedly aimed at ensuring lasting security in the region. If Trump is serious, and there’s no reason to think he isn’t, then he continues to exhibit his geopolitical ignorance.

While Zelensky believes he has the authority to sign international agreements, the cancellation of Ukraine’s elections creates uncertainty over the legal standing of any deals. If a new Ukrainian government decides to challenge or renegotiate the terms, US companies investing in Ukraine’s mineral sector could face legal disputes.

Furthermore, Russia could use this deal in its information campaigns, framing it as yet another example of Western exploitation. Moscow has consistently accused the West of seeking to strip Ukraine of its resources under the guise of aid, and this agreement only serves to validate that claim. In an American television interview last year, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham openly admitted the US had its eyes on Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth minerals.

The Trump-Zelensky minerals deal is a mess of economic interests, legal uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions. While the agreement aims to boost Ukraine’s economy, its long-term viability is doubtful. The lack of territorial resolutions, the cancelled elections, and the broader geopolitical implications all contribute to the sheer stupidity surrounding the deal.

For Trump, securing an agreement serves as a political win—reinforcing his image as the ultimate dealmaker. But he can’t pull it off. He would need to overcome Russia’s control of the territories where those minerals exist, and that won’t happen.

The risks of implementing this agreement highlight the fundamental challenge of engaging in resource deals amid an unresolved conflict. Whether the deal stands the test of time or becomes another casualty of geopolitical instability remains to be seen.

Trump’s naïve ignorance in thinking he can pull this off only exhibits a president oblivious to reality—or one being lied to by his advisors about what’s actually happening on the ground. Either way, Trump won’t be able to assert control over Russia’s mineral-rich regions.

The US’s attempt to cripple Russia has failed—a misadventure born of hegemonic arrogance and a complete lack of understanding of Russian history. The US can’t salvage anything from a war it was never going to win. All it can do now is eat a good ’ole serving of American humble pie.