Trump's Return Will Cement AIPAC's Grip on US-Israel Policy

Donald Trump’s re-election as the US’s 47th President, looms as one of the greatest political comebacks in modern history.  Christ’s resurrection was humanity’s saviour, and many will claim Trump will be the US’s. There is no comparison between Christ and Trump – that speaks for itself.

American politics is a strange phenomenon, it’s a political system that makes little sense to outside observers with its two years of political campaigning, electoral colleges system and heavily financed campaigns controlled by foreign interest lobby groups – AIPAC being the most prominent.

Trump’s political revival maybe fascinating for political historians of a vaunted political figure’s resurrection however, his foreign policy regarding the Middle East and Israel, loom large.

His first term marked significant support for Israel, and his second term won’t see it shift on Israel, Iran, or Gaza. AIPAC’s lobbying power will ensures the US remains firmly aligned with Israeli interests.

Trump’s moving of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognising Israel’s fake sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and brokering normalisation deals between Israel and several Arab countries under the Abraham Accords, were all victories for Israel.

But Trump’s pro-Israel stance isn’t merely the result of personal conviction. It’s been AIPAC’s long destructible influential force in Washington, that’s ensure US bipartisan support for Israel.

Founded in the 1950s, AIPAC turned itself into one of the most powerful lobby groups in US politics - dedicating substantial resources to influencing lawmakers, organising conferences, and shaping public opinion - ensuring US policies remain favourable to Israel.

The success of AIPAC’s strategy is evident with its unwavering nature of US policy on Israel. Presidents who’ve sought to introduce change found themselves stymied by AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups. Obama’s attempt to engage in diplomacy with Iran through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action faced extreme opposition from AIPAC.

Trump’s second term is unlikely to follow the same pattern. AIPAC’s pressure on issues like Iran and Gaza will restrict any policy deviation, even if Trump did express interest in altering his approach. The lobby’s role is so deeply entrenched it insulates US policy from the personal preferences of any individual president.

One of AIPAC’s most significant achievements has been its shaping of US policy toward Iran, long running the false narrative Iran is an existential threat to Israel when it isn’t - lobbying for policies that apply maximum pressure to limit Iran’s influence in the region. Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy during his first term—comprising heavy sanctions and the targeted killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani—was widely supported by AIPAC, viewing these moves as vital to Israel’s security.

Any diplomatic engagement with Iran is unlikely in Trump’s second term, given AIPAC’s pressure. And while AIPAC has framed the Iranian government as a destabilising force, consistently advocating against any form of rapprochement that might lead to concessions. Even if Trump did want to pursue a different approach, AIPAC’s influence, coupled with the long-standing view within Washington that Iran is an existential threat to the US and Israel, would make any diplomatic pivot difficult.

In Congress, bipartisan support for a hardline stance on Iran reinforces continuing the policy. AIPAC’s lobbying and bribery have ensured members of both parties won’t support any engagement that might be perceived as a threat to Israel. Despite a new term for Trump, US policy on Iran will remain unchanged.

Gaza is another issue where AIPAC’s influence has kept US policy firmly aligned with Israel’s priorities. The Israeli lobby has long emphasised Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, which governs Gaza, and because of such a distorted and false narrative, the US has consistently supported Israeli war crimes, while dismissing calls for addressing the humanitarian crisis faced by Palestinians.

Trump’s administration during his first term, staunchly supported Israel’s approach to Gaza, and there’s little indication its stance would shift during a second term.

Trump’s re-election will more than likely be a continuation of policies that prioritise Israeli security over Palestinian rights. AIPAC’s influence ensures US foreign policy remains aligned with Israel’s, making significant changes to Gaza policy highly improbable.

Securing bipartisan commitment, AIPAC has created a political environment making it almost impossible for any administration to make significant shifts in US-Israel relations. It’s an approach that’s made the US-Israel alliance virtually untouchable, ensuring US policy remains consistent, regardless of whose in power.

Trump’s first term demonstrated how closely US policy aligns with Israeli interests, and his second term will continue that pattern. The bipartisan support underpins the entire US-Israel relationship, ensuring the alliance remains strong and that policy consistency is preserved, regardless of Trump’s return.

The re-election of Trump won’t alter US foreign policy toward Israel, Iran, and Gaza. AIPAC’s influence, with the bipartisan support for Israeli interests, has solidified a foreign policy that prioritises Israel’s security above all else.

Trump’s re-election might continue the pro-Israel policies of his first term however, these policies are reflective of AIPAC’s long-standing influence than any individual president’s agenda.

Trump’s second term may continue his previous trajectory, but larger forces shaping US policy—namely AIPAC and bipartisan consensus—will inevitably determine the US’s approach to Israel, Iran, and Gaza. Trump’s presidency is part of a larger, unchanging framework that sustains the US-Israel relationship, ensuring US policy remains aligned with the priorities of the Israeli lobby.

American’s can expect nothing but a continuation of a foreign policy destructive to American interests and the encouragement of a global scourge. Trump won’t be Saving America Again, he’ll be helping destroy it if he allows AIPAC to control America.