Trump’s Empty Hand Revealed

US President Donald Trump is in uncharted waters — territory he’s unaccustomed to — and that’s losing.

The self-proclaimed “master negotiator,” slick supersalesman, and author of The Art of the Deal is drowning in frustration and failure. Trump is awakening from delusion to the harsh rudeness of reality. Whatever influence he thought he had negotiating a ceasefire deal on US terms is being exposed — he’s playing with no cards, while Russian President Vladimir Putin holds them all.

And Trump’s desperation to arrest a ship veering off course is showing. In a display of frustration and confusion that exposes the US’s eroding global influence, Trump told NBC News he is “pissed off” with Putin and is threatening to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil if a ceasefire in Ukraine isn’t reached soon.

Trump’s comments — made during a phone interview on Sunday — reveal more than just irritation. They expose a geopolitical truth the US has refused to acknowledge: the proxy war it started in Ukraine more than a decade ago — through CIA-backed coups, the breaking of the Minsk Accords, and NATO’s eastward creep — has failed. Russia’s 2022 invasion, long portrayed as unprovoked, was the culmination of years of escalation and attempts to encircle Russia.

It’s Putin, not Washington, who holds the upper hand. And Trump’s rhetoric smells of desperation from a leader grasping at straws in a global chess match he can no longer control.

“I was pissed off about it,” Trump said, referring to recent comments by Putin suggesting alternative leadership in Ukraine and sidelining President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “If a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, I’m going to put secondary sanctions on Russia,” he added, threatening to slap tariffs on “all oil coming out of Russia.”

Trump’s demeanour is not that of a confident, commanding leader of a superpower. It’s the petulant outburst of a president who knows Washington has lost leverage over a war it instigated.

His threat to strong-arm countries like India and China — key buyers of Russian oil — by slapping them with 25% to 50% tariffs if they continue doing business with Moscow is not only toothless, but pure geopolitical fantasy. India and China have long prioritised strategic autonomy, and Washington’s fading ability to coerce global partners only underscores how far the US has fallen from its unipolar perch.

Trump's veiled admission “it might not be” Russia’s fault if a peace deal fails shows the cracks in America’s narrative. For years, the US pushed the idea that Russia’s invasion was unprovoked and unjustified. But behind closed doors, even Trump acknowledges the complex reality mainstream media avoids: Ukraine was used as a battering ram in Washington’s larger mission to break Russia apart, depose Putin, and plunder its resources.

The US hasn’t just failed — it has backfired spectacularly. Russia’s economy has withstood years of sanctions, its energy trade continues unabated, and its political leadership remains firmly in place. Meanwhile, American influence in global oil markets is eroding, and attempts to weaponise trade — like Trump’s latest tariff threats — now come across as bluster from a weakened empire.

The White House last week touted a 30-day Black Sea truce as progress in Trump’s push for a broader ceasefire. Ukraine agreed to halt strikes on energy infrastructure, while Russia’s cooperation was conditioned on the removal of sanctions on its agricultural bank and related institutions. Russia is dictating terms — not the US.

If Trump follows through on his oil sanctions, the global economy could feel the shock. “Trump’s threat should see prices reacting more strongly considering the volumes at risk,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “But so far, there are no supply disruptions, just threats.” The US no longer has the capacity to impose real economic damage without harming itself and its allies.

The bigger concern, however, lies in what Trump appears to be angling for next: Iran.

In the same NBC interview, Trump said he’s considering secondary tariffs against Tehran and warned that if Iran doesn’t agree to a new nuclear accord within two months, it will face US bombing. A letter reportedly sent to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave the ultimatum, but Iran has rejected any direct talks with the Trump administration.

Trump’s tough-talking reveals a dangerous new gamble: that he hopes to use a rushed ceasefire with Russia as a launchpad for military action against Iran, mistakenly believing that securing peace in Ukraine will neutralise Moscow’s willingness to defend Tehran. If that’s Trump’s bet, it reflects a fundamental misreading of both Russia and Putin.

The idea that Russia would sit idly by while its strategic partner is bombed by the US displays a level of ignorance unbecoming of any statesman. Russia has invested heavily — militarily, economically, and diplomatically — in its relationship with Iran. Any strike by the US on Iranian soil would almost certainly provoke a coordinated response from Moscow.

More broadly, Trump’s foreign policy reveals a pattern of invented tactics and improvised threats — like the new concept of “secondary tariffs” — aimed at forcing submission rather than fostering diplomacy.

Just last week, Trump threatened to impose similar tariffs on countries that buy oil from Venezuela — another nation already suffocating under US sanctions. He claimed Venezuela was sending “tens of thousands of criminals” to the US, offering no credible evidence.

This isn’t strength. It’s the tantrum of a man who doesn’t understand the board he’s playing on.

Putin, by contrast, has demonstrated strategic patience, resilience, and a deeper understanding of global power dynamics. Trump’s frustrations — the angry outbursts and scattershot threats — only reinforce the growing sense that he’s negotiating from a position of weakness, while Russia sets the tempo for whatever comes next.

If Trump genuinely believes he can coerce Russia into peace while simultaneously threatening Iran, he’s not just miscalculating — he’s endangering global stability. Until he accepts he holds no cards of value, the US will continue to flail in a geopolitical game it no longer dominates.