Russia isn’t the threat – Peter Dutton is

Any consumer of any media outlet should always fine-tune their “bullshit detection radar” to distinguish between real news and political fantasy masquerading as journalism.

Take, for example, the story Australia’s media ran with yesterday, peddling the fantasy Russia is lobbying the Indonesian government to establish a military base in Papua. I wrote a piece debunking the absurdity of that claim, explaining why it holds no strategic merit and why Russia—unlike the US—has no hegemonic ambitions in the Asia-Pacific.

In what has been a lacklustre federal campaign, the story continues to roll on—seemingly to inject some manufactured and artificial spice into the contest between the incumbent Anthony Albanese and the inept and dangerous Federal Coalition leader, Peter Dutton.

As far as the race to The Lodge goes, this campaign has been as boring as it gets.

Continuing the delusion of a Russian foray into Southeast Asia, The Australian’s Southeast Asia correspondent Amanda Hodge penned yet another alarmist fantasy—this time spinning Indonesia’s routine defence diplomacy into a Cold War thriller straight out of Dutton’s playbook. Hodge’s April 15 piece, “Provocative Russian base request tests Indonesian ties,” isn’t just a failure of geopolitical analysis; it’s a thinly veiled contribution to a Coalition-manufactured fear campaign—designed to stir up anti-Asian sentiment and rebrand Dutton as a “strongman” in the mould of Donald Trump.

The supposed Russian “base” in Biak is nothing more than speculative theatre. It was swiftly and unequivocally dismissed by Indonesia’s own defence minister. Yet Hodge treats it as a legitimate geopolitical threat, recycling breathless hypotheticals while ignoring the nuance of Indonesia’s long-standing foreign policy principle of bebas dan aktif—free and active.

Indonesia’s policy of free and active has allowed it to navigate Cold War tensions, regional instability, and today’s multipolar dynamics without becoming entangled in any great power’s military ambitions. To suggest Jakarta would suddenly abandon that legacy for Putin’s flyover rights isn’t just lazy—it’s insulting.

Hodge’s piece reads less like foreign correspondence and more like Coalition comms. Its timing coincides perfectly with Dutton’s latest effort to reframe himself as Australia’s next wartime Prime Minister. Her article fuels the racist undercurrent of Dutton’s worldview—where Australia’s neighbours are seen not as allies, but as threats to be managed.

It’s part of a broader campaign to manufacture existential danger. China yesterday. Russia today. Who’s next tomorrow? The tragicomedy here is that Dutton’s “us versus them” worldview positions Australia as a besieged outpost of Western civilisation, entirely detached from our reality as a multicultural Asia-Pacific nation embedded in this region.

Hodge conveniently ignores how Australia’s own strategic alignment—particularly through AUKUS—has provoked regional anxiety. Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have repeatedly raised concerns about the risk of a regional arms race. But instead of interrogating whether Australia is contributing to that insecurity, Hodge projects the danger onto Indonesia for simply keeping diplomatic doors open.

Hodge’s piece isn’t journalism—it’s propaganda.

And it dangerously distracts from the real threat to Australia’s national security: Dutton and his Trumpian style of politics. Like Trump, Dutton feeds on manufactured crises, racial division, and strongman theatrics. Whether it's vilifying African youth, demonising refugees, or now turning Southeast Asia into a battleground for ideological warfare, his politics are built on fear—not vision.

And like Trump, Dutton offers no coherent foreign policy—only slogans. How would he respond to an actual diplomatic rift with Jakarta? Military escalation? Economic sanctions? Or more sabre-rattling to whip up his base while Australian trade suffers?

Australia needs a leader who understands diplomacy is not a zero-sum game. One who recognises Indonesia not as a pawn in great power competition but as a sovereign neighbour navigating its own strategic interests. Hodge may scoff at Indonesia’s desire to modernise its defence fleet, but for a country of 280 million people at a global crossroads, that’s a rational and necessary decision.

The irony is almost too perfect: Hodge sounds the alarm about hypothetical Russian rotations through Biak yet says nothing about the very real and growing presence of US forces in northern Australia. If Hodge was really concerned about sovereignty and foreign military influence, she’d start with Pine Gap—not Papua.

Ultimately, this kind of journalism legitimises the Coalition’s regressive, racist agenda: sow fear, demonise “the other,” and sell Dutton as Australia’s last line of defence against imaginary threats.

What Hodge’s piece does reveal however, is that Dutton isn’t fit to be Prime Minister. His worldview is paranoid, his tactics are divisive, and his policies—like Trump’s—are destined to fail.

Australia must stop chasing Russian ghosts in Papua and start confronting the real threat at home: the rise of Trumpism under a new name.