Erdoğan’s Deception: Syria’s Collapse and His Downfall
Syria’s collapse, highlighted by Bashar al-Assad seeking asylum in Moscow, represents a critical turning point for the Middle East and the political trajectory of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The US and Israel have long played a key role in destabilising Syria, but it’s been Erdoğan’s duplicity that has been instrumental in the downfall of Assad’s government. Regional ambition, ideological opportunism and Erdogan’s duplicity haven’t only contributed to Syria’s collapse but set the stage for his own potential downfall as Turkey’s leader.
Erdogan has always been viewed by most of the world as untrustworthy and conniving - a view reinforced, when at the beginning of Syria’s Civil War, he presented himself as a mediator and a powerbroker - offering rhetoric of stability and diplomacy while secretly pursuing policies that undermined Syria. Initially advocating for dialogue, he quickly pivoted to support extremist groups, with extremist elements, to topple Assad.
Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey became a conduit for weapons, fighters, and funds funnelled to anti-Assad forces. Turkey’s porous border with Syria was a lifeline for rebel groups, including extremist factions like al-Nusra and ISIS, who exploited Turkey’s logistical support to strengthen their foothold in the region. Erdoğan justified these actions under the guise of opposing a brutal dictator, while his true motives were far more self-serving.
The Turkish President’s double dealing in Syria is entrenched in his broader vision of restoring Turkey’s influence as a dominant power in the Middle East. Erdogan has always dreamt of returning Turkey to its glory days of the Ottoman Empire and he as its ruler. His desire to overthrow Assad, is designed to replace Syria’s secular, nationalist leadership with a government aligned with his Islamist agenda - extending Turkey’s ideological and geopolitical reach. It’s an ambition that has also driven by economic interests, particularly Turkey’s desire to control key trade routes and energy corridors that run through Syria.
However, Erdoğan’s strategy has backfired. Instead of securing Turkish dominance, his policies have contributed to Syria’s transformation into a fractured and lawless state. The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has strained the country’s economy and social fabric, while the resurgence of Kurdish militancy along Turkey’s southern border has heightened domestic instability. These outcomes have eroded Erdoğan’s credibility both at home and abroad, exposing the limits of his leadership.
His role in Syria’s downfall has also alienated Turkey from its regional allies. His early partnership with the US in supporting Syrian rebels was short-lived, as Ankara’s priorities began to diverge from Washington’s. While the US focused on combating ISIS, Erdoğan concentrated on suppressing Kurdish aspirations for autonomy, often at the expense of broader regional stability.
Erdoğan’s relationship with Russia is equally duplicitous. Despite co-operating with Moscow on certain fronts, like joint patrols in northern Syria, Turkey’s continued support for anti-Assad forces has undermined Russia’s efforts to stabilise the Syrian government. It’s this type of underhandedness that has strained the Erdoğan-Putin relationship, leaving Turkey increasingly isolated in its foreign policy.
The fall of Assad and the collapse of Syria are a warning for Erdoğan’s political future. His duplicity, while temporarily advancing his agenda, has sewn the seeds for his own potential downfall. Domestically, Erdoğan faces mounting economic challenges, growing political opposition, and widespread dissatisfaction with his authoritarian rule. His mismanagement of the Syrian crisis, coupled with the burden of hosting over 3.5m refugees, has fueled public resentment and eroded his popular support.
Internationally, Erdoğan’s reputation remains as an untrustworthy and devious and opportunistic - diminishing Turkey’s standing globally. Alienated from allies like the US and the EU coupled with his fraught relationships with Russia and Iran, has left Turkey diplomatically isolated. It’s these factors combined, along with the erosion of Erdogan’s domestic power base, suggest his political survival has become tenuous.
Syria’s collapse underlines the destructive consequences of foreign intervention and regional duplicity throughout the Middle East. While the U.S. and Israel have long pursued policies of division and exploitation, Erdoğan’s actions demonstrate that regional actors can be equally complicit undermining Arab sovereignty and stability. .
The Arab world has to come together to prevent Syria’s fate from being replicated elsewhere. Countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan must recognise their security depends on rejecting policies of conquest and division championed by the West and opportunistic leaders like Erdoğan. Despite The Arab League’s limitations, it needs to take a stronger stance promoting regional unity and sovereignty.
For Turkey, the prospect of Erdoğan’s downfall presents an opportunity to reset its foreign policy and repair relationships with neighboring countries. A post-Erdoğan government would have the chance to adopt a more balanced and constructive approach, focusing on diplomacy and cooperation rather than underhanded connivance and division.
Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Moscow and the fall of Syria represent a critical turning point in the Middle East’s history - overthrowing Assad will have far-reaching consequences for the region and the world.
While the West has played a central role in Syria’s destruction, the duplicity of Erdoğan has been equally instrumental in its downfall. For Erdoğan, his opportunism and ambition hasn’t only contributed to Syria’s collapse but set the stage for his own political demise.
The degree of intrigue, duplicity, deception, mixed agendas and subterfuge by 'leaders' of both West and East is absolutely staggering.
It is of little wonder that the average 'person in the street', regardless of their political allegiance, ideology, religion or intellectual level, has an almost impossible task to make sense of the constant unrest, conflict, war and destruction of both physical infrastructure and human lives.
There is no doubt that such has been a facet of human existence for many thousands of years, perhaps forever. However, in the modern world, it seems that what humanity has experienced and from which it could have learned, has improved little, if anything at all. In fact, to me, it appears that it is worse now than at any time in human history.
Once upon a time, there was conflict which took place face to face, at its worst in close combat. It was effectively limited and often, though admittedly not always, relatively short-lived. The tyrants and demagogues still existed, of course, and their persecution and lack of concern for those they considered far inferior to themselves was no less obscene than today.
A big difference now, however, is the abilities brought about by relatively instantaneous communication over vast distances, as well as not least the ability to cause serious destruction or injury and death - even annihilation of hundreds of thousands, from thousands of miles away and without the need for a single soldier of the attacker to be put at risk.
There appears to have been no significant advance in human morality which might have kept the scientific and technological developments that have facilitated actual death and destruction to be levied virtually as readily as if played in a video game. The consequences, however, do not just ripple across the world but often stream across it as a tidal wave might.
What is it that prevents the human intellect from recognising its collective pathway to humanity's suicide?
What has prevented us from recognising what we do? - Religon? Ideology? Politics? or perhaps just innate greed, selfishness, ignorance, intolerance and fear of difference?
Why is it that humanity seems unable to imagine and bring about a world society of equity, conservation and sustainability that could easily come into being if the resources currently used in division and conflict were instead used in collaboration and mutual benefit?
Are human beings simply stupidly ignorant or diseased with insanity?
I don't know.
What I do know is that I regret having fathered children who now have fathered their own children who will almost certainly see the collapse and destruction of human societies and probably the death of the planet itself.
'...Erdoğan’s actions demonstrate that regional actors can be equally complicit undermining Arab sovereignty and stability.'
These type of despicable, immoral, and self-serving leaders are essentially responsible for the further deterioration and chaos in the already suffering Middle East.